Early POTUS campaign analysis
Jun. 5th, 2008 10:10 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tagrynGood article on the myriad problems that Obama poses for McCain in the upcoming POTUS campaign. The same author offers his plan of attack to deal with these problems. I think his plan tends towards the negative, but here's the ugly truth about negative campaigning: for all that voters say they hate it, its actually very effective. Note the negative bounce in Obama's numbers at the apex of the Wright controversy, and that's without Clinton's campaign really going after him hard on it.
I think Obama justifiably viewed the favorite right now, simply because he has such a large lead in campaign $$$ available, and the money edge has decided most contemporary POTUS elections. On the other hand, I don't think this will be an easy victory for him, either; McCain's campaign was left for dead last summer, but he rallied and beat all the other GOP contenders handily for the nomination. He has a history of campaigning well from the underdog position, and frankly, he's probably the only GOP candidate who would have had a shot at beating a Democratic candidate given the generally ugly mood in the USA right now towards Bush and residual dissatisfaction from when the Republicans were in charge of Congress as well. To be running at more or less a dead heat with Obama right now is impressive, all things considered. Whether those numbers hold up will depend on how Hillary's supporters break; if McCain can appeal to some of her more moderate/DLC supporters, this will be a closer race than most folks seem to be assuming.
I think Obama justifiably viewed the favorite right now, simply because he has such a large lead in campaign $$$ available, and the money edge has decided most contemporary POTUS elections. On the other hand, I don't think this will be an easy victory for him, either; McCain's campaign was left for dead last summer, but he rallied and beat all the other GOP contenders handily for the nomination. He has a history of campaigning well from the underdog position, and frankly, he's probably the only GOP candidate who would have had a shot at beating a Democratic candidate given the generally ugly mood in the USA right now towards Bush and residual dissatisfaction from when the Republicans were in charge of Congress as well. To be running at more or less a dead heat with Obama right now is impressive, all things considered. Whether those numbers hold up will depend on how Hillary's supporters break; if McCain can appeal to some of her more moderate/DLC supporters, this will be a closer race than most folks seem to be assuming.
