I don't usually agree with Fred Kaplan at Slate, but I think his
article on Bush's meeting with Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is right on. For all the good intentions and deeds, there is still an element of realpolitik involved in U.S. foreign policy, no more so than in our relationship with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Unfortunately, because of the widespread popularity of bin Laden and al-Qaeta in SA, I can easily see the Saudi situation tumbling into the fire at some point, following
past history in a lot of ways. The question is how long the U.S. need for oil would keep us hanging onto the handlebars if the ride starts going off the rails?
The hard choice would be to pressure the Saudi monarchy to rein in its fundamentalist mullahs, especially in their zeal to spread Wahhabism across the developing world. That would either force the monarchy to embrace the Wahhabis entirely, or cause the House of Faud to fall, replaced by a Taliban-like regime more than likely...and the accompanying oil disruptions which would go along with that. But at least there would be clarity in our relationship, as opposed to the current situation of publically proclaiming the Saudis as our friends, while knowing that a lot of the support al-Qaeta is getting comes from Saudi citizens & that the monarchy doesn't want to face the consequences that would happen they seriously tried to cut off that support.
My guess is that Bush is playing for time, knowing that the economy would take a very hard hit if Saudi Arabia's oil were offline for even a short time (which also likely cause China and Japan's economies to collapse, but that's another essay). The government has been
topping off the strategic oil reserves, a good precaution but hardly sufficent. Bush's call for
more oil refineries and nuclear plants seems to me the right direction to be headed in. According to the
Houston Chronicle, we have less than half the oil refineries than in '81, while demand is 20% higher, and
the current refineries are running at near full capacity. Too many eggs in too few baskets.
Of course, we wouldn't be in this spot if we hadn't taken a 20 year vacation from investing heavily in energy conservation & technology, but that's water under the bridge.