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Iraq, again
Jul. 31st, 2005 10:04 amGood article by Fred Kaplan titled We Can Leave Iraq by 2007. FK has been steadfastly against Bush & the Iraq war from the start, but he's generally solid when it comes to defense matters. Of especially disquieting note:
I've been somewhat against setting a timetable, since it would give the insurgents a firm date to shoot for beyond which they wouldn't have to worry about facing U.S. forces again. But if the Iraqis really are this reluctant to get their house in order, then a timetable might be the only thing which does it.
Also from Kaplan:
Sounds about right. We're probably going to eventually draw down to maintaining one division in Iraq and another in Kuwait as a rapid reaction force, but that comes out to around 25,000 troops total. That's very doable, only somewhat larger than our long-term deployment to Bosnia.
...some of Petraeus' aides, if not the general himself, have recently learned of rumors that Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari doesn't want his army to be well-trained. A leading Shiite, Jaafari reportedly fears that if the U.S. troops leave Iraq, the insurgents will crush all resistance and hoist the Sunnis back to power. Since the Americans have said they will leave once the Iraqi security forces are self-sufficient, Jaafari figures it's best to keep that day at bay. This could explain why many Iraqi units lack such basic materials as reliable weapons, ammunition, and sufficient food and bedding gear.
One of Petraeus' aides hit the roof when he heard this rumor of Jaafari's recalcitrance a few weeks ago. This may be why Rumsfeld seemed more perturbed than usual after his meeting with Jaafari in Baghdad this week. It may be why, for the first time, he brought up the subject of eventually pulling out.
I've been somewhat against setting a timetable, since it would give the insurgents a firm date to shoot for beyond which they wouldn't have to worry about facing U.S. forces again. But if the Iraqis really are this reluctant to get their house in order, then a timetable might be the only thing which does it.
Also from Kaplan:
The withdrawal clock can't—and shouldn't—start ticking until after this December's election, when the Iraqis vote for a new government...At that point, it may take another 18 months for the Iraqi security forces to be equipped and trained—assuming that, this time, the new government cooperates. So, under this scenario, the United States can start pulling out of Iraq, as Gen. Casey projected, by the spring or summer of 2006—and be out entirely by mid-2007.
Sounds about right. We're probably going to eventually draw down to maintaining one division in Iraq and another in Kuwait as a rapid reaction force, but that comes out to around 25,000 troops total. That's very doable, only somewhat larger than our long-term deployment to Bosnia.
