Iranian elections: this makes sense

[tagryn]

Here's a possibility: the results are a coup attempt by the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) and basij to force the election to Ahmandinejad. Given the autonomous nature of the Guards outside the regular military, its possible the IRGC decided it was too important not to intervene with or without Khamenei's blessing.

That's actually a very scary proposition, as the IRGC are among the most hardline in the Iranian political spectrum, and them running the country without checks would go a long way towards destabilizing the region quickly. Quds Force is a section of the IRGC, for example. The Guards and basij also wouldn't have a problem with killing a lot of Iranians to stem unrest.

Comments

[jordan179.livejournal.com]

On the other hand, such a coup might induce the real Iranian Armed Forces to intervene against the Revolutionary Guards. Too bad that Obama's the President of the USA right now, or we might be seeing a US-Iranian alliance against the Revolutionary Guards -- who Bush, you may remember, designated as a "terrorist organization" and hence fair game.

[erikred.livejournal.com]

It seems mighty clear that someone forced the issue; the numbers are simply too pat for comfort. Also, the rather convenient arrest of many of the opposition's influential supporters raises suspicions.

Engagement would have been nice, but it seems likely that we'll be back to sanctions (on our part) and asshattery (on Ahmadinejad's) in no time.