Election night
Nov. 4th, 2008 07:48 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tagrynFrom Allahpundit, a guide to how quickly the election could be over with tonight. How to read the tea leaves as polls start closing in battleground states:
There'll still be some drama even if the POTUS race is over early, since the Democrats need to get a supermajority of 60 seats in the Senate in order to marginalize the GOP from the process of governing. With less than 60 seats in the D column, the Republicans could still wield the filibuster to stop legislation, though it would open an interesting problem for them of how often to use it: abuse of it would legitimately give the Democrats ammo that the Republicans are being obstructionist, while using it only rarely would ensure the same situation as if the magical 60 seat margin were achieved.
Ed Morrissey at HA predicts a McCain victory 273-265, not surprisingly. Allahpundit was more cautious, and predicts a solid Obama win 318-220. I think AP is right on this one; the McCain supporters are pinning their hopes on the polling being wrong.
UPDATE: Karl Rove's prediction: Obama landslide, 338-200.
7 p.m. (EST) Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana
...
The line is there because none of the states below it matter much unless (McCain)'s come close to running the table in the states above it...He can afford to lose any single state above the line, no matter which it is, so long as he wins all the others. Under no circumstances can he afford to lose a combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. Two out of three is a must, plus every other state above the line...What this means, given (Obama)’s lead, is that each hour on Tuesday night operates almost like an elimination game. If McCain wins Indiana and Virginia, he survives and advances to the next round against Ohio and North Carolina. If he wins both of those, he moves on to the eastern regional championship in Pennsylvania and Florida. And if he wins both of those, he heads west for the Final Six. Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately.
There'll still be some drama even if the POTUS race is over early, since the Democrats need to get a supermajority of 60 seats in the Senate in order to marginalize the GOP from the process of governing. With less than 60 seats in the D column, the Republicans could still wield the filibuster to stop legislation, though it would open an interesting problem for them of how often to use it: abuse of it would legitimately give the Democrats ammo that the Republicans are being obstructionist, while using it only rarely would ensure the same situation as if the magical 60 seat margin were achieved.
Ed Morrissey at HA predicts a McCain victory 273-265, not surprisingly. Allahpundit was more cautious, and predicts a solid Obama win 318-220. I think AP is right on this one; the McCain supporters are pinning their hopes on the polling being wrong.
UPDATE: Karl Rove's prediction: Obama landslide, 338-200.
