Political entry
Jan. 9th, 2010 10:04 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tagrynAs sometimes happens, a reply to an entry gets overly long. Since I typed this up anyway, figured I'd post it here. Originally a reply to this post at WoC which started out as a reaction to this essay by Peggy Noonan in the WSJ on how neither party is in particularly good shape right now.
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The great danger for the Democrats when they assumed control of both Congress and POTUS was overreach, the temptation to pander to their special interests rather than tending to the needs of the nation. Unfortunately for them, the sheer number of "sweeteners"/bribes included in the health care bill, not to mention the whole mishmash of bailout programs which haven't yielded tangible relief as far as the average voter sees, have given the GOP a huge number of issues to go after, if they are competent enough to do so. Obama needed to assume control and prevent the usual pork-ladeling from happening, but it seems as though he has held himself aloof from the whole process, allowing Pelosi and Reid to set the tone and the agenda.
As Noonan says, the best thing that could happen for Obama's 2012 election odds is for the GOP to resume control of Congress, which would give him political cover for taking the more moderate and pragmatic approach that he campaigned on. Considering how long it will take for the health care bill to start helping (or hurting) the average American, it is unlikely it will impact his '12 chances much. The big factors will probably be how well the economy has rebounded by then, and how the voters think he's doing on the "keep the nation safe" measure. Charisma is necessary but not sufficient.
I sometimes think that both parties have gotten so skilled at operating as the opposition that they've forgotten how to get out of that mode once they're actually at the controls. Both are quite competent at criticism and counterpunching and using the media to get that message out, but not so good at managing (or even understanding) the ever-more-complex systems which they find themselves in charge of running or regulating.
In one of Noonan's other essays she said that she feared that this will be remembered as an age where our leaders weren't quite of a caliber to meet the challenges facing them. As we pong from one party to the other being in charge without significant improvements or reforms, I think she may be proven correct. There's a large opening for a populist message of changing business-as-usual, and Obama's failures to deliver on his promises to be that leader will be the hardest thing for him to deal with in 2012.
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The great danger for the Democrats when they assumed control of both Congress and POTUS was overreach, the temptation to pander to their special interests rather than tending to the needs of the nation. Unfortunately for them, the sheer number of "sweeteners"/bribes included in the health care bill, not to mention the whole mishmash of bailout programs which haven't yielded tangible relief as far as the average voter sees, have given the GOP a huge number of issues to go after, if they are competent enough to do so. Obama needed to assume control and prevent the usual pork-ladeling from happening, but it seems as though he has held himself aloof from the whole process, allowing Pelosi and Reid to set the tone and the agenda.
As Noonan says, the best thing that could happen for Obama's 2012 election odds is for the GOP to resume control of Congress, which would give him political cover for taking the more moderate and pragmatic approach that he campaigned on. Considering how long it will take for the health care bill to start helping (or hurting) the average American, it is unlikely it will impact his '12 chances much. The big factors will probably be how well the economy has rebounded by then, and how the voters think he's doing on the "keep the nation safe" measure. Charisma is necessary but not sufficient.
I sometimes think that both parties have gotten so skilled at operating as the opposition that they've forgotten how to get out of that mode once they're actually at the controls. Both are quite competent at criticism and counterpunching and using the media to get that message out, but not so good at managing (or even understanding) the ever-more-complex systems which they find themselves in charge of running or regulating.
In one of Noonan's other essays she said that she feared that this will be remembered as an age where our leaders weren't quite of a caliber to meet the challenges facing them. As we pong from one party to the other being in charge without significant improvements or reforms, I think she may be proven correct. There's a large opening for a populist message of changing business-as-usual, and Obama's failures to deliver on his promises to be that leader will be the hardest thing for him to deal with in 2012.
